Tokyo Marathon 5:30 pace chart
A 5:30:00 finish at the Tokyo Marathon averages 12:35 per mile (7:49 per kilometre) — a steady, sustainable finish, and the pace most first-time marathoners should actually target. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 7:15/km and the hardest around 8:33/km — about 79 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:42:29 — a 5:03 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 33; at this goal time it should take 8:33/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Tokyo on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 5:30:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Tokyo Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 5:30:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7:30 | 12:05 | -97 ft (-29 m) | 7:30 |
| 2 | 7:41 | 12:21 | -8 ft (-3 m) | 15:11 |
| 3 | 7:29 | 12:02 | -30 ft (-9 m) | 22:40 |
| 4 | 7:15 | 11:40 | -43 ft (-13 m) | 29:54 |
| 5 | 7:46 | 12:29 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 37:40 |
| 6 | 7:21 | 11:49 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 45:01 |
| 7 | 8:08 | 13:06 | +22 ft (+7 m) | 53:09 |
| 8 | 7:58 | 12:50 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 1:01:07 |
| 9 | 7:39 | 12:19 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 1:08:46 |
| 10 | 8:08 | 13:06 | +28 ft (+9 m) | 1:16:54 |
| 11 | 7:27 | 11:59 | -28 ft (-8 m) | 1:24:21 |
| 12 | 7:40 | 12:21 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:32:01 |
| 13 | 7:49 | 12:35 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:39:50 |
| 14 | 7:36 | 12:13 | -15 ft (-5 m) | 1:47:26 |
| 15 | 7:56 | 12:46 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:55:22 |
| 16 | 8:04 | 12:58 | +18 ft (+5 m) | 2:03:25 |
| 17 | 7:27 | 12:00 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 2:10:53 |
| 18 | 7:40 | 12:20 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 2:18:33 |
| 19 | 7:45 | 12:28 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:26:17 |
| 20 | 7:46 | 12:31 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:34:04 |
| 21 | 7:39 | 12:18 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 2:41:43 |
| 22 | 7:52 | 12:39 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 2:49:34 |
| 23 | 7:53 | 12:41 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:57:27 |
| 24 | 7:39 | 12:19 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 3:05:06 |
| 25 | 7:49 | 12:35 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:12:56 |
| 26 | 8:02 | 12:55 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 3:20:57 |
| 27 | 7:55 | 12:44 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 3:28:52 |
| 28 | 7:46 | 12:30 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:36:38 |
| 29 | 8:16 | 13:18 | +38 ft (+12 m) | 3:44:54 |
| 30 | 7:37 | 12:16 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 3:52:31 |
| 31 | 7:48 | 12:32 | -1 ft (0 m) | 4:00:19 |
| 32 | 8:11 | 13:11 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 4:08:30 |
| 33 | 7:20 | 11:48 | -38 ft (-12 m) | 4:15:50 |
| 34 | 8:33 | 13:46 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 4:24:23 |
| 35 | 7:47 | 12:32 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 4:32:11 |
| 36 | 7:45 | 12:28 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 4:39:56 |
| 37 | 8:01 | 12:55 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 4:47:57 |
| 38 | 8:00 | 12:53 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 4:55:57 |
| 39 | 7:57 | 12:48 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 5:03:55 |
| 40 | 8:22 | 13:27 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 5:12:16 |
| 41 | 8:17 | 13:20 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 5:20:34 |
| 42 | 7:57 | 12:47 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 5:28:30 |
| 42.2 | 7:40 | 12:20 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 5:30:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 5:30 marathon?
A 5:30:00 marathon is 12:35 per mile or 7:49 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Tokyo Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 5:30 at the Tokyo Marathon?
2:42:29. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 5:30:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Tokyo Marathon?
Even effort at a 5:30 goal produces splits between 7:15 and 8:33 per kilometre — about 79 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Tokyo Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 5:30:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 5:30 a realistic marathon goal?
5:30 is a steady, sustainable finish, and the pace most first-time marathoners should actually target. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.