Tokyo Marathon 3:45 pace chart
A 3:45:00 finish at the Tokyo Marathon averages 8:35 per mile (5:20 per kilometre) — a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 4:56/km and the hardest around 5:50/km — about 54 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 1:50:47 — a 3:27 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 33; at this goal time it should take 5:50/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Tokyo on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 3:45:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Tokyo Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:07 | 8:14 | -97 ft (-29 m) | 5:07 |
| 2 | 5:14 | 8:25 | -8 ft (-3 m) | 10:21 |
| 3 | 5:06 | 8:12 | -30 ft (-9 m) | 15:27 |
| 4 | 4:56 | 7:57 | -43 ft (-13 m) | 20:23 |
| 5 | 5:17 | 8:31 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 25:41 |
| 6 | 5:00 | 8:04 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 30:41 |
| 7 | 5:33 | 8:56 | +22 ft (+7 m) | 36:14 |
| 8 | 5:26 | 8:45 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 41:40 |
| 9 | 5:13 | 8:24 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 46:53 |
| 10 | 5:33 | 8:56 | +28 ft (+9 m) | 52:26 |
| 11 | 5:05 | 8:10 | -28 ft (-8 m) | 57:31 |
| 12 | 5:14 | 8:25 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:02:44 |
| 13 | 5:20 | 8:35 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:08:04 |
| 14 | 5:11 | 8:20 | -15 ft (-5 m) | 1:13:15 |
| 15 | 5:24 | 8:42 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:18:39 |
| 16 | 5:30 | 8:51 | +18 ft (+5 m) | 1:24:09 |
| 17 | 5:05 | 8:11 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 1:29:14 |
| 18 | 5:14 | 8:25 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 1:34:28 |
| 19 | 5:17 | 8:30 | -1 ft (0 m) | 1:39:45 |
| 20 | 5:18 | 8:32 | +1 ft (0 m) | 1:45:03 |
| 21 | 5:13 | 8:23 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 1:50:15 |
| 22 | 5:22 | 8:37 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:55:37 |
| 23 | 5:22 | 8:39 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:00:59 |
| 24 | 5:13 | 8:24 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 2:06:13 |
| 25 | 5:20 | 8:35 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:11:32 |
| 26 | 5:28 | 8:48 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 2:17:01 |
| 27 | 5:24 | 8:41 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:22:24 |
| 28 | 5:18 | 8:31 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:27:42 |
| 29 | 5:38 | 9:04 | +38 ft (+12 m) | 2:33:20 |
| 30 | 5:12 | 8:22 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 2:38:32 |
| 31 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:43:51 |
| 32 | 5:35 | 8:59 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 2:49:26 |
| 33 | 5:00 | 8:03 | -38 ft (-12 m) | 2:54:26 |
| 34 | 5:50 | 9:23 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:00:16 |
| 35 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 3:05:35 |
| 36 | 5:17 | 8:30 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 3:10:52 |
| 37 | 5:28 | 8:48 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 3:16:20 |
| 38 | 5:27 | 8:47 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 3:21:47 |
| 39 | 5:25 | 8:44 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 3:27:13 |
| 40 | 5:42 | 9:10 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:32:55 |
| 41 | 5:39 | 9:06 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 3:38:34 |
| 42 | 5:25 | 8:43 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 3:43:59 |
| 42.2 | 5:13 | 8:24 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 3:45:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 3:45 marathon?
A 3:45:00 marathon is 8:35 per mile or 5:20 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Tokyo Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 3:45 at the Tokyo Marathon?
1:50:47. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 3:45:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Tokyo Marathon?
Even effort at a 3:45 goal produces splits between 4:56 and 5:50 per kilometre — about 54 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Tokyo Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 3:45 a realistic marathon goal?
3:45 is a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.