Tokyo Marathon 4:00 pace chart
A 4:00:00 finish at the Tokyo Marathon averages 9:09 per mile (5:41 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 5:16/km and the hardest around 6:13/km — about 57 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 1:58:10 — a 3:40 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 33; at this goal time it should take 6:13/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Tokyo on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:00:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Tokyo Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:00:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:28 | 8:47 | -97 ft (-29 m) | 5:28 |
| 2 | 5:35 | 8:59 | -8 ft (-3 m) | 11:02 |
| 3 | 5:26 | 8:45 | -30 ft (-9 m) | 16:29 |
| 4 | 5:16 | 8:29 | -43 ft (-13 m) | 21:45 |
| 5 | 5:39 | 9:05 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 27:24 |
| 6 | 5:20 | 8:36 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 32:44 |
| 7 | 5:55 | 9:31 | +22 ft (+7 m) | 38:39 |
| 8 | 5:48 | 9:20 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 44:27 |
| 9 | 5:34 | 8:57 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 50:01 |
| 10 | 5:55 | 9:31 | +28 ft (+9 m) | 55:56 |
| 11 | 5:25 | 8:43 | -28 ft (-8 m) | 1:01:21 |
| 12 | 5:35 | 8:59 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:06:55 |
| 13 | 5:41 | 9:09 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:12:36 |
| 14 | 5:31 | 8:53 | -15 ft (-5 m) | 1:18:08 |
| 15 | 5:46 | 9:17 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:23:54 |
| 16 | 5:52 | 9:26 | +18 ft (+5 m) | 1:29:46 |
| 17 | 5:25 | 8:44 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 1:35:11 |
| 18 | 5:35 | 8:58 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 1:40:46 |
| 19 | 5:38 | 9:04 | -1 ft (0 m) | 1:46:24 |
| 20 | 5:39 | 9:06 | +1 ft (0 m) | 1:52:03 |
| 21 | 5:34 | 8:57 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 1:57:36 |
| 22 | 5:43 | 9:12 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 2:03:19 |
| 23 | 5:44 | 9:14 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:09:03 |
| 24 | 5:34 | 8:58 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 2:14:37 |
| 25 | 5:41 | 9:09 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:20:19 |
| 26 | 5:50 | 9:24 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 2:26:09 |
| 27 | 5:45 | 9:15 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:31:54 |
| 28 | 5:39 | 9:05 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:37:33 |
| 29 | 6:01 | 9:41 | +38 ft (+12 m) | 2:43:34 |
| 30 | 5:33 | 8:55 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 2:49:06 |
| 31 | 5:40 | 9:07 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:54:46 |
| 32 | 5:57 | 9:35 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 3:00:44 |
| 33 | 5:20 | 8:35 | -38 ft (-12 m) | 3:06:03 |
| 34 | 6:13 | 10:01 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:12:17 |
| 35 | 5:40 | 9:07 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 3:17:57 |
| 36 | 5:38 | 9:04 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 3:23:35 |
| 37 | 5:50 | 9:23 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 3:29:25 |
| 38 | 5:49 | 9:22 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 3:35:14 |
| 39 | 5:47 | 9:19 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 3:41:02 |
| 40 | 6:05 | 9:47 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:47:06 |
| 41 | 6:02 | 9:42 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 3:53:08 |
| 42 | 5:47 | 9:18 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 3:58:55 |
| 42.2 | 5:34 | 8:58 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 4:00:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:00 marathon?
A 4:00:00 marathon is 9:09 per mile or 5:41 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Tokyo Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:00 at the Tokyo Marathon?
1:58:10. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:00:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Tokyo Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:00 goal produces splits between 5:16 and 6:13 per kilometre — about 57 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Tokyo Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:00:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:00 a realistic marathon goal?
4:00 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.