Tokyo Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Tokyo Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 5:36/km and the hardest around 6:37/km — about 61 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:05:33 — a 3:54 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 33; at this goal time it should take 6:37/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Tokyo on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Tokyo Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:48 | 9:20 | -97 ft (-29 m) | 5:48 |
| 2 | 5:56 | 9:33 | -8 ft (-3 m) | 11:44 |
| 3 | 5:47 | 9:18 | -30 ft (-9 m) | 17:31 |
| 4 | 5:36 | 9:01 | -43 ft (-13 m) | 23:07 |
| 5 | 6:00 | 9:39 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 29:06 |
| 6 | 5:41 | 9:08 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 34:47 |
| 7 | 6:17 | 10:07 | +22 ft (+7 m) | 41:04 |
| 8 | 6:10 | 9:55 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 47:14 |
| 9 | 5:55 | 9:31 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 53:08 |
| 10 | 6:17 | 10:07 | +28 ft (+9 m) | 59:26 |
| 11 | 5:45 | 9:15 | -28 ft (-8 m) | 1:05:11 |
| 12 | 5:56 | 9:32 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:11:06 |
| 13 | 6:02 | 9:43 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:17:09 |
| 14 | 5:52 | 9:27 | -15 ft (-5 m) | 1:23:01 |
| 15 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:29:08 |
| 16 | 6:14 | 10:01 | +18 ft (+5 m) | 1:35:22 |
| 17 | 5:46 | 9:16 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 1:41:08 |
| 18 | 5:56 | 9:32 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 1:47:03 |
| 19 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -1 ft (0 m) | 1:53:02 |
| 20 | 6:00 | 9:40 | +1 ft (0 m) | 1:59:03 |
| 21 | 5:54 | 9:31 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 2:04:57 |
| 22 | 6:04 | 9:46 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 2:11:02 |
| 23 | 6:05 | 9:48 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:17:07 |
| 24 | 5:55 | 9:31 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 2:23:02 |
| 25 | 6:03 | 9:43 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:29:05 |
| 26 | 6:12 | 9:59 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 2:35:17 |
| 27 | 6:07 | 9:50 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:41:24 |
| 28 | 6:00 | 9:39 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:47:24 |
| 29 | 6:23 | 10:17 | +38 ft (+12 m) | 2:53:47 |
| 30 | 5:53 | 9:29 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 2:59:40 |
| 31 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:05:42 |
| 32 | 6:20 | 10:11 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 3:12:01 |
| 33 | 5:40 | 9:07 | -38 ft (-12 m) | 3:17:41 |
| 34 | 6:37 | 10:39 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:24:18 |
| 35 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 3:30:19 |
| 36 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 3:36:19 |
| 37 | 6:12 | 9:59 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 3:42:31 |
| 38 | 6:11 | 9:57 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 3:48:42 |
| 39 | 6:09 | 9:53 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 3:54:50 |
| 40 | 6:28 | 10:24 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 4:01:18 |
| 41 | 6:24 | 10:18 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 4:07:42 |
| 42 | 6:08 | 9:53 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 4:13:51 |
| 42.2 | 5:55 | 9:32 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Tokyo Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Tokyo Marathon?
2:05:33. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Tokyo Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 5:36 and 6:37 per kilometre — about 61 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Tokyo Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.