New York City Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the New York City Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest mile comes in around 8:52/mi and the hardest around 10:26/mi — about 94 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every mile of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:06:49 — a 1:23 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest mile on the course sits near kilometre 37; at this goal time it should take 10:26/mi, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing New York on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Mile-by-mile targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the New York City Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Mile | Target /mi | Target /km | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8:52 | 5:31 | -117 ft (-36 m) | 8:52 |
| 2 | 10:21 | 6:26 | +58 ft (+18 m) | 19:13 |
| 3 | 9:58 | 6:11 | +24 ft (+7 m) | 29:11 |
| 4 | 9:47 | 6:05 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 38:58 |
| 5 | 9:29 | 5:54 | -23 ft (-7 m) | 48:28 |
| 6 | 9:30 | 5:54 | -23 ft (-7 m) | 57:58 |
| 7 | 9:36 | 5:58 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 1:07:34 |
| 8 | 9:50 | 6:07 | +13 ft (+4 m) | 1:17:24 |
| 9 | 10:04 | 6:15 | +32 ft (+10 m) | 1:27:28 |
| 10 | 9:09 | 5:41 | -57 ft (-17 m) | 1:36:38 |
| 11 | 10:07 | 6:17 | +39 ft (+12 m) | 1:46:44 |
| 12 | 9:20 | 5:48 | -38 ft (-12 m) | 1:56:05 |
| 13 | 9:40 | 6:00 | -5 ft (-2 m) | 2:05:45 |
| 14 | 9:43 | 6:02 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:15:28 |
| 15 | 9:46 | 6:04 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 2:25:14 |
| 16 | 10:15 | 6:22 | +45 ft (+14 m) | 2:35:29 |
| 17 | 9:28 | 5:53 | -25 ft (-8 m) | 2:44:57 |
| 18 | 9:27 | 5:52 | -28 ft (-9 m) | 2:54:25 |
| 19 | 9:45 | 6:03 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 3:04:10 |
| 20 | 9:54 | 6:09 | +18 ft (+5 m) | 3:14:04 |
| 21 | 9:27 | 5:52 | -27 ft (-8 m) | 3:23:31 |
| 22 | 9:55 | 6:10 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 3:33:26 |
| 23 | 9:47 | 6:05 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 3:43:13 |
| 24 | 10:26 | 6:29 | +69 ft (+21 m) | 3:53:39 |
| 25 | 9:31 | 5:55 | -27 ft (-8 m) | 4:03:10 |
| 26 | 9:44 | 6:03 | -1 ft (0 m) | 4:12:54 |
| 26.2 | 9:38 | 5:59 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the New York City Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every mile.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the New York City Marathon?
2:06:49. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the New York City Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 8:52 and 10:26 per mile — about 94 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these New York City Marathon splits calculated?
Each mile is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.