Manchester Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Manchester Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 5:29/km and the hardest around 6:25/km — about 56 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:08:02 — a 1:03 negative split, because the harder half comes first. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 20; at this goal time it should take 6:25/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Manchester on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Manchester Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 5:59 |
| 2 | 5:58 | 9:37 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 11:57 |
| 3 | 6:05 | 9:48 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 18:03 |
| 4 | 6:02 | 9:43 | -1 ft (0 m) | 24:05 |
| 5 | 5:57 | 9:35 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 30:02 |
| 6 | 6:07 | 9:51 | +8 ft (+2 m) | 36:09 |
| 7 | 6:15 | 10:03 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 42:24 |
| 8 | 5:54 | 9:30 | -15 ft (-4 m) | 48:18 |
| 9 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +1 ft (0 m) | 54:21 |
| 10 | 5:55 | 9:32 | -13 ft (-4 m) | 1:00:17 |
| 11 | 6:04 | 9:46 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 1:06:21 |
| 12 | 6:07 | 9:51 | +8 ft (+3 m) | 1:12:28 |
| 13 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 1:18:36 |
| 14 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:24:37 |
| 15 | 5:57 | 9:34 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:30:33 |
| 16 | 6:05 | 9:47 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:36:39 |
| 17 | 6:12 | 9:59 | +16 ft (+5 m) | 1:42:51 |
| 18 | 5:59 | 9:37 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 1:48:49 |
| 19 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:54:50 |
| 20 | 6:15 | 10:03 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 2:01:05 |
| 21 | 6:25 | 10:19 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 2:07:30 |
| 22 | 5:29 | 8:50 | -59 ft (-18 m) | 2:12:59 |
| 23 | 6:06 | 9:49 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 2:19:04 |
| 24 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 2:25:05 |
| 25 | 6:00 | 9:39 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 2:31:05 |
| 26 | 5:57 | 9:34 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 2:37:02 |
| 27 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:43:05 |
| 28 | 6:00 | 9:40 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:49:05 |
| 29 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -5 ft (-2 m) | 2:55:04 |
| 30 | 6:02 | 9:42 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:01:06 |
| 31 | 6:01 | 9:42 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:07:07 |
| 32 | 5:57 | 9:35 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 3:13:04 |
| 33 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 3:19:03 |
| 34 | 5:53 | 9:28 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 3:24:56 |
| 35 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 3:31:04 |
| 36 | 6:14 | 10:02 | +19 ft (+6 m) | 3:37:18 |
| 37 | 6:07 | 9:51 | +8 ft (+2 m) | 3:43:24 |
| 38 | 6:04 | 9:46 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 3:49:28 |
| 39 | 6:05 | 9:47 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 3:55:33 |
| 40 | 6:03 | 9:45 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 4:01:37 |
| 41 | 6:01 | 9:42 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 4:07:38 |
| 42 | 6:15 | 10:04 | +21 ft (+6 m) | 4:13:54 |
| 42.2 | 5:41 | 9:09 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Manchester Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Manchester Marathon?
2:08:02. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Manchester Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 5:29 and 6:25 per kilometre — about 56 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Manchester Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.