Manchester Marathon 3:45 pace chart
A 3:45:00 finish at the Manchester Marathon averages 8:35 per mile (5:20 per kilometre) — a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 4:50/km and the hardest around 5:40/km — about 49 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 1:52:58 — a 0:56 negative split, because the harder half comes first. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 20; at this goal time it should take 5:40/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Manchester on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 3:45:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Manchester Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:17 | 8:30 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 5:17 |
| 2 | 5:16 | 8:29 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 10:33 |
| 3 | 5:22 | 8:39 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 15:55 |
| 4 | 5:20 | 8:35 | -1 ft (0 m) | 21:15 |
| 5 | 5:15 | 8:27 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 26:30 |
| 6 | 5:24 | 8:41 | +8 ft (+2 m) | 31:54 |
| 7 | 5:31 | 8:52 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 37:25 |
| 8 | 5:12 | 8:23 | -15 ft (-4 m) | 42:37 |
| 9 | 5:20 | 8:36 | +1 ft (0 m) | 47:58 |
| 10 | 5:14 | 8:25 | -13 ft (-4 m) | 53:11 |
| 11 | 5:21 | 8:37 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 58:32 |
| 12 | 5:24 | 8:42 | +8 ft (+3 m) | 1:03:56 |
| 13 | 5:25 | 8:43 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 1:09:21 |
| 14 | 5:18 | 8:32 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:14:40 |
| 15 | 5:15 | 8:26 | -10 ft (-3 m) | 1:19:54 |
| 16 | 5:22 | 8:38 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:25:16 |
| 17 | 5:28 | 8:48 | +16 ft (+5 m) | 1:30:45 |
| 18 | 5:16 | 8:29 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 1:36:01 |
| 19 | 5:18 | 8:32 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:41:19 |
| 20 | 5:31 | 8:52 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 1:46:50 |
| 21 | 5:40 | 9:06 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 1:52:30 |
| 22 | 4:50 | 7:47 | -59 ft (-18 m) | 1:57:20 |
| 23 | 5:23 | 8:40 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 2:02:43 |
| 24 | 5:18 | 8:33 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 2:08:01 |
| 25 | 5:17 | 8:31 | -5 ft (-1 m) | 2:13:19 |
| 26 | 5:15 | 8:27 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 2:18:33 |
| 27 | 5:20 | 8:35 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:23:54 |
| 28 | 5:18 | 8:32 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:29:11 |
| 29 | 5:17 | 8:30 | -5 ft (-2 m) | 2:34:28 |
| 30 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:39:48 |
| 31 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -1 ft (0 m) | 2:45:06 |
| 32 | 5:15 | 8:27 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 2:50:21 |
| 33 | 5:17 | 8:30 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 2:55:38 |
| 34 | 5:11 | 8:21 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 3:00:49 |
| 35 | 5:24 | 8:42 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 3:06:14 |
| 36 | 5:30 | 8:51 | +19 ft (+6 m) | 3:11:44 |
| 37 | 5:24 | 8:41 | +8 ft (+2 m) | 3:17:07 |
| 38 | 5:21 | 8:37 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 3:22:29 |
| 39 | 5:22 | 8:38 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 3:27:51 |
| 40 | 5:21 | 8:36 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 3:33:11 |
| 41 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 3:38:30 |
| 42 | 5:31 | 8:53 | +21 ft (+6 m) | 3:44:01 |
| 42.2 | 5:01 | 8:04 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 3:45:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 3:45 marathon?
A 3:45:00 marathon is 8:35 per mile or 5:20 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Manchester Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 3:45 at the Manchester Marathon?
1:52:58. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 3:45:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Manchester Marathon?
Even effort at a 3:45 goal produces splits between 4:50 and 5:40 per kilometre — about 49 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Manchester Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 3:45 a realistic marathon goal?
3:45 is a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.