Twin Cities Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Twin Cities Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest mile comes in around 9:01/mi and the hardest around 10:34/mi — about 93 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every mile of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:07:00 — a 1:00 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest mile on the course sits near kilometre 2; at this goal time it should take 10:25/mi, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Minneapolis on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Mile-by-mile targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Twin Cities Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Mile | Target /mi | Target /km | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9:43 | 6:02 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 9:43 |
| 2 | 10:25 | 6:29 | +66 ft (+20 m) | 20:08 |
| 3 | 9:09 | 5:41 | -58 ft (-18 m) | 29:17 |
| 4 | 9:42 | 6:02 | +1 ft (0 m) | 38:59 |
| 5 | 9:41 | 6:01 | 0 ft (0 m) | 48:40 |
| 6 | 9:40 | 6:00 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 58:20 |
| 7 | 9:39 | 6:00 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:07:59 |
| 8 | 9:44 | 6:03 | +5 ft (+1 m) | 1:17:43 |
| 9 | 9:38 | 5:59 | -13 ft (-4 m) | 1:27:22 |
| 10 | 9:30 | 5:54 | -20 ft (-6 m) | 1:36:52 |
| 11 | 9:47 | 6:05 | +9 ft (+3 m) | 1:46:39 |
| 12 | 9:34 | 5:57 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 1:56:13 |
| 13 | 9:41 | 6:01 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:05:54 |
| 14 | 9:57 | 6:11 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 2:15:52 |
| 15 | 9:25 | 5:51 | -29 ft (-9 m) | 2:25:16 |
| 16 | 9:39 | 6:00 | -5 ft (-2 m) | 2:34:55 |
| 17 | 9:33 | 5:56 | -15 ft (-4 m) | 2:44:28 |
| 18 | 9:56 | 6:10 | +24 ft (+7 m) | 2:54:24 |
| 19 | 9:01 | 5:36 | -97 ft (-29 m) | 3:03:24 |
| 20 | 10:34 | 6:34 | +68 ft (+21 m) | 3:13:59 |
| 21 | 9:59 | 6:12 | +28 ft (+8 m) | 3:23:58 |
| 22 | 10:28 | 6:30 | +74 ft (+23 m) | 3:34:26 |
| 23 | 10:12 | 6:20 | +49 ft (+15 m) | 3:44:38 |
| 24 | 9:26 | 5:52 | -28 ft (-8 m) | 3:54:03 |
| 25 | 9:47 | 6:05 | +9 ft (+3 m) | 4:03:50 |
| 26 | 9:01 | 5:36 | -74 ft (-23 m) | 4:12:51 |
| 26.2 | 9:50 | 6:07 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Twin Cities Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every mile.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Twin Cities Marathon?
2:07:00. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Twin Cities Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 9:01 and 10:34 per mile — about 93 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Twin Cities Marathon splits calculated?
Each mile is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.