Sydney Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Sydney Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 4:54/km and the hardest around 8:25/km — about 211 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:08:42 — a 2:24 negative split, because the harder half comes first. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 13; at this goal time it should take 8:25/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Sydney on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Sydney Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:21 | 8:36 | -95 ft (-29 m) | 5:21 |
| 2 | 4:54 | 7:53 | -159 ft (-48 m) | 10:15 |
| 3 | 6:49 | 10:58 | +64 ft (+19 m) | 17:04 |
| 4 | 7:12 | 11:36 | -55 ft (-17 m) | 24:16 |
| 5 | 5:52 | 9:27 | -23 ft (-7 m) | 30:08 |
| 6 | 6:23 | 10:17 | +35 ft (+11 m) | 36:32 |
| 7 | 5:28 | 8:47 | -59 ft (-18 m) | 41:59 |
| 8 | 6:05 | 9:47 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 48:04 |
| 9 | 6:49 | 10:58 | +82 ft (+25 m) | 54:53 |
| 10 | 5:32 | 8:55 | -54 ft (-16 m) | 1:00:25 |
| 11 | 6:35 | 10:36 | +1 ft (0 m) | 1:07:01 |
| 12 | 5:51 | 9:25 | -17 ft (-5 m) | 1:12:52 |
| 13 | 6:09 | 9:55 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 1:19:01 |
| 14 | 8:25 | 13:33 | +209 ft (+64 m) | 1:27:26 |
| 15 | 5:40 | 9:08 | -61 ft (-19 m) | 1:33:06 |
| 16 | 5:21 | 8:36 | -75 ft (-23 m) | 1:38:27 |
| 17 | 6:40 | 10:44 | +69 ft (+21 m) | 1:45:08 |
| 18 | 5:35 | 8:59 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 1:50:43 |
| 19 | 5:30 | 8:51 | -50 ft (-15 m) | 1:56:13 |
| 20 | 6:10 | 9:55 | +21 ft (+6 m) | 2:02:22 |
| 21 | 5:45 | 9:15 | -20 ft (-6 m) | 2:08:08 |
| 22 | 5:54 | 9:29 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 2:14:01 |
| 23 | 5:48 | 9:20 | -14 ft (-4 m) | 2:19:49 |
| 24 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 2:25:52 |
| 25 | 5:58 | 9:36 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 2:31:50 |
| 26 | 6:16 | 10:05 | +31 ft (+9 m) | 2:38:06 |
| 27 | 6:15 | 10:03 | +29 ft (+9 m) | 2:44:21 |
| 28 | 5:39 | 9:06 | -31 ft (-9 m) | 2:50:00 |
| 29 | 5:58 | 9:36 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 2:55:58 |
| 30 | 5:48 | 9:21 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 3:01:46 |
| 31 | 6:19 | 10:11 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:08:06 |
| 32 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 3:14:14 |
| 33 | 5:42 | 9:10 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 3:19:55 |
| 34 | 5:46 | 9:17 | -18 ft (-6 m) | 3:25:41 |
| 35 | 6:25 | 10:19 | +46 ft (+14 m) | 3:32:06 |
| 36 | 5:58 | 9:35 | 0 ft (0 m) | 3:38:03 |
| 37 | 5:54 | 9:30 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 3:43:57 |
| 38 | 5:23 | 8:39 | -70 ft (-21 m) | 3:49:20 |
| 39 | 5:18 | 8:32 | -75 ft (-23 m) | 3:54:38 |
| 40 | 6:20 | 10:11 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 4:00:58 |
| 41 | 6:20 | 10:11 | +35 ft (+11 m) | 4:07:18 |
| 42 | 6:36 | 10:37 | +51 ft (+15 m) | 4:13:53 |
| 42.2 | 5:41 | 9:09 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Sydney Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Sydney Marathon?
2:08:42. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Sydney Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 4:54 and 8:25 per kilometre — about 211 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Sydney Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.