Sydney Marathon 3:45 pace chart
A 3:45:00 finish at the Sydney Marathon averages 8:35 per mile (5:20 per kilometre) — a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 4:19/km and the hardest around 7:25/km — about 186 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 1:53:34 — a 2:07 negative split, because the harder half comes first. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 13; at this goal time it should take 7:25/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Sydney on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 3:45:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Sydney Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4:43 | 7:36 | -95 ft (-29 m) | 4:43 |
| 2 | 4:19 | 6:58 | -159 ft (-48 m) | 9:03 |
| 3 | 6:01 | 9:40 | +64 ft (+19 m) | 15:03 |
| 4 | 6:21 | 10:14 | -55 ft (-17 m) | 21:25 |
| 5 | 5:11 | 8:20 | -23 ft (-7 m) | 26:35 |
| 6 | 5:38 | 9:05 | +35 ft (+11 m) | 32:14 |
| 7 | 4:49 | 7:45 | -59 ft (-18 m) | 37:03 |
| 8 | 5:22 | 8:38 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 42:25 |
| 9 | 6:01 | 9:40 | +82 ft (+25 m) | 48:25 |
| 10 | 4:53 | 7:52 | -54 ft (-16 m) | 53:19 |
| 11 | 5:49 | 9:22 | +1 ft (0 m) | 59:08 |
| 12 | 5:10 | 8:19 | -17 ft (-5 m) | 1:04:17 |
| 13 | 5:26 | 8:45 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 1:09:43 |
| 14 | 7:25 | 11:57 | +209 ft (+64 m) | 1:17:09 |
| 15 | 5:00 | 8:03 | -61 ft (-19 m) | 1:22:09 |
| 16 | 4:43 | 7:36 | -75 ft (-23 m) | 1:26:52 |
| 17 | 5:53 | 9:29 | +69 ft (+21 m) | 1:32:46 |
| 18 | 4:56 | 7:56 | -36 ft (-11 m) | 1:37:41 |
| 19 | 4:51 | 7:49 | -50 ft (-15 m) | 1:42:33 |
| 20 | 5:26 | 8:45 | +21 ft (+6 m) | 1:47:59 |
| 21 | 5:05 | 8:10 | -20 ft (-6 m) | 1:53:03 |
| 22 | 5:12 | 8:22 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 1:58:15 |
| 23 | 5:07 | 8:14 | -14 ft (-4 m) | 2:03:22 |
| 24 | 5:20 | 8:35 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 2:08:42 |
| 25 | 5:16 | 8:29 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 2:13:58 |
| 26 | 5:32 | 8:54 | +31 ft (+9 m) | 2:19:30 |
| 27 | 5:31 | 8:52 | +29 ft (+9 m) | 2:25:01 |
| 28 | 4:59 | 8:01 | -31 ft (-9 m) | 2:30:00 |
| 29 | 5:16 | 8:29 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 2:35:16 |
| 30 | 5:07 | 8:15 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 2:40:23 |
| 31 | 5:35 | 8:59 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 2:45:58 |
| 32 | 5:25 | 8:43 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 2:51:23 |
| 33 | 5:01 | 8:05 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 2:56:24 |
| 34 | 5:05 | 8:11 | -18 ft (-6 m) | 3:01:29 |
| 35 | 5:39 | 9:06 | +46 ft (+14 m) | 3:07:09 |
| 36 | 5:15 | 8:28 | 0 ft (0 m) | 3:12:24 |
| 37 | 5:12 | 8:23 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 3:17:37 |
| 38 | 4:45 | 7:38 | -70 ft (-21 m) | 3:22:21 |
| 39 | 4:41 | 7:32 | -75 ft (-23 m) | 3:27:02 |
| 40 | 5:35 | 8:59 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:32:37 |
| 41 | 5:35 | 8:59 | +35 ft (+11 m) | 3:38:12 |
| 42 | 5:49 | 9:22 | +51 ft (+15 m) | 3:44:01 |
| 42.2 | 5:01 | 8:05 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 3:45:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 3:45 marathon?
A 3:45:00 marathon is 8:35 per mile or 5:20 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Sydney Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 3:45 at the Sydney Marathon?
1:53:34. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 3:45:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Sydney Marathon?
Even effort at a 3:45 goal produces splits between 4:19 and 7:25 per kilometre — about 186 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Sydney Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 3:45 a realistic marathon goal?
3:45 is a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.