Grandma's Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Grandma's Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest mile comes in around 9:11/mi and the hardest around 10:04/mi — about 53 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every mile of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:07:06 — a 0:47 positive split, which is what the terrain costs you rather than a pacing error. The hardest mile on the course sits near kilometre 35; at this goal time it should take 9:53/mi, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Duluth on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Mile-by-mile targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Grandma's Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Mile | Target /mi | Target /km | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9:38 | 5:59 | -13 ft (-4 m) | 9:38 |
| 2 | 9:32 | 5:55 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 19:10 |
| 3 | 9:28 | 5:53 | -30 ft (-9 m) | 28:38 |
| 4 | 9:48 | 6:05 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 38:26 |
| 5 | 9:36 | 5:58 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 48:02 |
| 6 | 9:43 | 6:02 | -9 ft (-3 m) | 57:45 |
| 7 | 9:48 | 6:05 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 1:07:33 |
| 8 | 10:02 | 6:14 | +26 ft (+8 m) | 1:17:34 |
| 9 | 9:55 | 6:10 | +13 ft (+4 m) | 1:27:30 |
| 10 | 9:11 | 5:42 | -62 ft (-19 m) | 1:36:41 |
| 11 | 10:03 | 6:15 | +29 ft (+9 m) | 1:46:44 |
| 12 | 9:43 | 6:02 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 1:56:26 |
| 13 | 9:36 | 5:58 | -16 ft (-5 m) | 2:06:02 |
| 14 | 9:50 | 6:07 | +8 ft (+2 m) | 2:15:52 |
| 15 | 9:46 | 6:04 | +1 ft (0 m) | 2:25:38 |
| 16 | 9:41 | 6:01 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 2:35:19 |
| 17 | 9:51 | 6:08 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:45:10 |
| 18 | 9:59 | 6:12 | +23 ft (+7 m) | 2:55:10 |
| 19 | 9:27 | 5:53 | -31 ft (-9 m) | 3:04:37 |
| 20 | 10:04 | 6:15 | +31 ft (+9 m) | 3:14:41 |
| 21 | 9:57 | 6:11 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 3:24:38 |
| 22 | 9:33 | 5:56 | -21 ft (-6 m) | 3:34:11 |
| 23 | 9:53 | 6:09 | +9 ft (+3 m) | 3:44:04 |
| 24 | 9:42 | 6:02 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 3:53:46 |
| 25 | 9:35 | 5:57 | -17 ft (-5 m) | 4:03:21 |
| 26 | 9:31 | 5:55 | -25 ft (-8 m) | 4:12:53 |
| 26.2 | 9:42 | 6:01 | -1 ft (0 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Grandma's Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every mile.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Grandma's Marathon?
2:07:06. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Grandma's Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 9:11 and 10:04 per mile — about 53 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Grandma's Marathon splits calculated?
Each mile is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.