Dublin Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Dublin Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 5:19/km and the hardest around 6:31/km — about 71 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:07:58 — a 0:57 negative split, because the harder half comes first. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 4; at this goal time it should take 6:31/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Dublin on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Dublin Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -2 ft (-1 m) | 6:01 |
| 2 | 5:55 | 9:32 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 11:56 |
| 3 | 5:44 | 9:14 | -32 ft (-10 m) | 17:41 |
| 4 | 6:26 | 10:21 | +39 ft (+12 m) | 24:06 |
| 5 | 6:31 | 10:29 | +47 ft (+14 m) | 30:37 |
| 6 | 6:19 | 10:11 | +29 ft (+9 m) | 36:56 |
| 7 | 5:57 | 9:35 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 42:54 |
| 8 | 6:23 | 10:16 | +35 ft (+11 m) | 49:16 |
| 9 | 6:14 | 10:02 | +20 ft (+6 m) | 55:31 |
| 10 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 1:01:39 |
| 11 | 6:22 | 10:15 | +33 ft (+10 m) | 1:08:01 |
| 12 | 6:01 | 9:42 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 1:14:02 |
| 13 | 5:19 | 8:34 | -84 ft (-26 m) | 1:19:21 |
| 14 | 6:05 | 9:47 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 1:25:27 |
| 15 | 5:46 | 9:17 | -32 ft (-10 m) | 1:31:13 |
| 16 | 5:30 | 8:52 | -58 ft (-18 m) | 1:36:43 |
| 17 | 6:12 | 9:58 | +15 ft (+5 m) | 1:42:55 |
| 18 | 6:20 | 10:11 | +27 ft (+8 m) | 1:49:14 |
| 19 | 5:54 | 9:30 | -14 ft (-4 m) | 1:55:08 |
| 20 | 6:05 | 9:48 | +5 ft (+2 m) | 2:01:14 |
| 21 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 2:07:21 |
| 22 | 6:22 | 10:15 | +33 ft (+10 m) | 2:13:43 |
| 23 | 6:24 | 10:19 | +37 ft (+11 m) | 2:20:08 |
| 24 | 6:01 | 9:40 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:26:08 |
| 25 | 6:09 | 9:54 | +12 ft (+4 m) | 2:32:17 |
| 26 | 6:02 | 9:42 | 0 ft (0 m) | 2:38:19 |
| 27 | 6:00 | 9:39 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 2:44:18 |
| 28 | 6:14 | 10:02 | +21 ft (+6 m) | 2:50:33 |
| 29 | 5:42 | 9:11 | -34 ft (-10 m) | 2:56:15 |
| 30 | 6:02 | 9:43 | +1 ft (0 m) | 3:02:17 |
| 31 | 5:51 | 9:25 | -19 ft (-6 m) | 3:08:08 |
| 32 | 5:36 | 9:00 | -47 ft (-14 m) | 3:13:44 |
| 33 | 5:58 | 9:36 | -8 ft (-2 m) | 3:19:41 |
| 34 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 3:25:49 |
| 35 | 6:24 | 10:17 | +36 ft (+11 m) | 3:32:13 |
| 36 | 6:14 | 10:01 | +19 ft (+6 m) | 3:38:27 |
| 37 | 5:35 | 9:00 | -49 ft (-15 m) | 3:44:02 |
| 38 | 5:42 | 9:11 | -33 ft (-10 m) | 3:49:44 |
| 39 | 5:48 | 9:20 | -23 ft (-7 m) | 3:55:32 |
| 40 | 5:59 | 9:37 | -5 ft (-2 m) | 4:01:31 |
| 41 | 6:01 | 9:41 | -2 ft (0 m) | 4:07:32 |
| 42 | 6:07 | 9:51 | +9 ft (+3 m) | 4:13:39 |
| 42.2 | 6:53 | 11:05 | +16 ft (+5 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Dublin Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Dublin Marathon?
2:07:58. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Dublin Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 5:19 and 6:31 per kilometre — about 71 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Dublin Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.