Osaka Marathon 4:15 pace chart
A 4:15:00 finish at the Osaka Marathon averages 9:44 per mile (6:03 per kilometre) — the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 5:20/km and the hardest around 6:39/km — about 78 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 2:07:36 — an almost exactly even split. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 8; at this goal time it should take 6:39/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Osaka on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 4:15:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Osaka Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:46 | 9:17 | -40 ft (-12 m) | 5:46 |
| 2 | 5:54 | 9:29 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 11:40 |
| 3 | 6:26 | 10:20 | +38 ft (+12 m) | 18:06 |
| 4 | 5:47 | 9:18 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 23:52 |
| 5 | 6:32 | 10:31 | +47 ft (+14 m) | 30:24 |
| 6 | 5:48 | 9:20 | -28 ft (-9 m) | 36:12 |
| 7 | 6:10 | 9:56 | +13 ft (+4 m) | 42:22 |
| 8 | 5:50 | 9:23 | -35 ft (-11 m) | 48:12 |
| 9 | 6:39 | 10:42 | +44 ft (+13 m) | 54:51 |
| 10 | 6:04 | 9:46 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 1:00:55 |
| 11 | 6:35 | 10:36 | +43 ft (+13 m) | 1:07:30 |
| 12 | 5:20 | 8:36 | -81 ft (-25 m) | 1:12:50 |
| 13 | 5:54 | 9:30 | -15 ft (-5 m) | 1:18:45 |
| 14 | 5:52 | 9:26 | -19 ft (-6 m) | 1:24:37 |
| 15 | 6:08 | 9:53 | +13 ft (+4 m) | 1:30:45 |
| 16 | 6:01 | 9:40 | 0 ft (0 m) | 1:36:46 |
| 17 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 1:42:45 |
| 18 | 6:05 | 9:47 | +7 ft (+2 m) | 1:48:50 |
| 19 | 6:01 | 9:41 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 1:54:51 |
| 20 | 5:48 | 9:20 | -21 ft (-6 m) | 2:00:39 |
| 21 | 6:23 | 10:17 | +34 ft (+10 m) | 2:07:02 |
| 22 | 5:53 | 9:27 | -17 ft (-5 m) | 2:12:55 |
| 23 | 5:59 | 9:38 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:18:54 |
| 24 | 6:02 | 9:42 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 2:24:56 |
| 25 | 6:02 | 9:43 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 2:30:58 |
| 26 | 5:58 | 9:36 | -4 ft (-1 m) | 2:36:56 |
| 27 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 2:42:59 |
| 28 | 6:18 | 10:08 | +25 ft (+8 m) | 2:49:16 |
| 29 | 6:11 | 9:57 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 2:55:27 |
| 30 | 5:50 | 9:23 | -24 ft (-7 m) | 3:01:17 |
| 31 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 3:07:20 |
| 32 | 6:34 | 10:33 | +48 ft (+15 m) | 3:13:54 |
| 33 | 6:08 | 9:52 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 3:20:01 |
| 34 | 5:44 | 9:14 | -34 ft (-10 m) | 3:25:45 |
| 35 | 5:46 | 9:16 | -27 ft (-8 m) | 3:31:31 |
| 36 | 6:03 | 9:44 | +4 ft (+1 m) | 3:37:34 |
| 37 | 6:01 | 9:42 | +1 ft (0 m) | 3:43:35 |
| 38 | 5:53 | 9:29 | -12 ft (-4 m) | 3:49:28 |
| 39 | 6:04 | 9:47 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 3:55:33 |
| 40 | 5:57 | 9:34 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 4:01:29 |
| 41 | 6:06 | 9:48 | +8 ft (+3 m) | 4:07:35 |
| 42 | 6:17 | 10:06 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 4:13:51 |
| 42.2 | 5:52 | 9:26 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 4:15:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 4:15 marathon?
A 4:15:00 marathon is 9:44 per mile or 6:03 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Osaka Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 4:15 at the Osaka Marathon?
2:07:36. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 4:15:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Osaka Marathon?
Even effort at a 4:15 goal produces splits between 5:20 and 6:39 per kilometre — about 78 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Osaka Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 4:15:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 4:15 a realistic marathon goal?
4:15 is the classic sub-4 target, close to the middle of a typical big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.