Mexico City Marathon 3:45 pace chart
A 3:45:00 finish at the Mexico City Marathon averages 8:35 per mile (5:20 per kilometre) — a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Run at even effort rather than even pace, the easiest kilometre comes in around 4:55/km and the hardest around 6:10/km — about 75 seconds between the two extremes. Holding an identical number on every kilometre of a course with this profile means running the climbs too hard and the descents too easy. Held at even effort, halfway comes up at 1:52:40 — an almost exactly even split. The hardest kilometre on the course sits near kilometre 31; at this goal time it should take 6:10/km, and giving it that time is the difference between finishing Mexico City on plan and unravelling in the last hour.
Kilometre-by-kilometre targets for 3:45:00
Grade-adjusted splits computed from the Mexico City Marathon elevation profile with the Minetti gradient-cost model, scaled so the full course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time, downhills less, at one constant effort throughout.
| Kilometre | Target /km | Target /mi | Elev Δ | Elapsed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5:26 | 8:44 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 5:26 |
| 2 | 4:55 | 7:55 | -51 ft (-15 m) | 10:21 |
| 3 | 5:31 | 8:53 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 15:52 |
| 4 | 5:04 | 8:10 | -35 ft (-11 m) | 20:56 |
| 5 | 5:22 | 8:38 | +2 ft (+1 m) | 26:18 |
| 6 | 5:09 | 8:18 | -26 ft (-8 m) | 31:27 |
| 7 | 5:21 | 8:37 | -25 ft (-8 m) | 36:49 |
| 8 | 5:22 | 8:38 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 42:10 |
| 9 | 5:04 | 8:10 | -29 ft (-9 m) | 47:15 |
| 10 | 5:28 | 8:48 | +15 ft (+5 m) | 52:43 |
| 11 | 5:11 | 8:21 | -18 ft (-6 m) | 57:54 |
| 12 | 5:26 | 8:44 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:03:19 |
| 13 | 5:21 | 8:36 | +3 ft (+1 m) | 1:08:40 |
| 14 | 5:19 | 8:34 | -1 ft (0 m) | 1:14:00 |
| 15 | 5:16 | 8:28 | -6 ft (-2 m) | 1:19:15 |
| 16 | 5:38 | 9:04 | +34 ft (+10 m) | 1:24:53 |
| 17 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 1:30:12 |
| 18 | 5:23 | 8:39 | +6 ft (+2 m) | 1:35:35 |
| 19 | 5:37 | 9:03 | +31 ft (+10 m) | 1:41:12 |
| 20 | 5:27 | 8:47 | +16 ft (+5 m) | 1:46:39 |
| 21 | 5:30 | 8:50 | +17 ft (+5 m) | 1:52:09 |
| 22 | 5:17 | 8:31 | -11 ft (-3 m) | 1:57:26 |
| 23 | 5:10 | 8:19 | -20 ft (-6 m) | 2:02:36 |
| 24 | 5:21 | 8:36 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:07:57 |
| 25 | 5:26 | 8:44 | +11 ft (+3 m) | 2:13:23 |
| 26 | 5:37 | 9:03 | +33 ft (+10 m) | 2:19:00 |
| 27 | 5:10 | 8:20 | -22 ft (-7 m) | 2:24:10 |
| 28 | 5:12 | 8:22 | -14 ft (-4 m) | 2:29:22 |
| 29 | 5:18 | 8:32 | -3 ft (-1 m) | 2:34:40 |
| 30 | 5:02 | 8:06 | -34 ft (-10 m) | 2:39:42 |
| 31 | 5:15 | 8:27 | -7 ft (-2 m) | 2:44:58 |
| 32 | 6:10 | 9:55 | +83 ft (+25 m) | 2:51:08 |
| 33 | 5:08 | 8:16 | -35 ft (-11 m) | 2:56:16 |
| 34 | 5:01 | 8:04 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 3:01:16 |
| 35 | 5:28 | 8:47 | +8 ft (+3 m) | 3:06:44 |
| 36 | 5:04 | 8:09 | -37 ft (-11 m) | 3:11:48 |
| 37 | 5:36 | 9:00 | +26 ft (+8 m) | 3:17:23 |
| 38 | 5:10 | 8:20 | -22 ft (-7 m) | 3:22:34 |
| 39 | 5:11 | 8:21 | -17 ft (-5 m) | 3:27:45 |
| 40 | 5:27 | 8:46 | +9 ft (+3 m) | 3:33:12 |
| 41 | 5:26 | 8:45 | +10 ft (+3 m) | 3:38:38 |
| 42 | 5:20 | 8:35 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:43:58 |
| 42.2 | 5:19 | 8:33 | -1 ft (0 m) | 3:45:00 |
Frequently asked questions
What pace is a 3:45 marathon?
A 3:45:00 marathon is 8:35 per mile or 5:20 per kilometre held for the full 26.2 miles (42.195 km). On the Mexico City Marathon specifically, the elevation profile means even effort produces uneven splits — the table on this page gives the target for every kilometre.
What should my halfway split be for a 3:45 at the Mexico City Marathon?
1:52:40. That is the grade-adjusted halfway target for this course, not simply half of 3:45:00 — it accounts for where the climbing sits. Reaching the half meaningfully faster than this on this course usually means you have spent the effort you need for the closing miles.
Should I run even splits at the Mexico City Marathon?
Even effort at a 3:45 goal produces splits between 4:55 and 6:10 per kilometre — about 75 seconds between the easiest and hardest one. Grade-adjusted pacing gives back time on the descents and spends it on the climbs, which is what running an even physiological effort actually looks like on a course with this profile.
How are these Mexico City Marathon splits calculated?
Each kilometre is weighted by its gradient using the Minetti et al. (2002) cost-of-running polynomial, which measures the metabolic cost of running at grades from −45% to +45%. The total is then scaled so the whole course adds up to 3:45:00. Uphill sections get more time and downhill sections less, at a constant effort throughout.
Is 3:45 a realistic marathon goal?
3:45 is a fast recreational time, roughly the top quintile of a big-city field. Whether it is realistic for you depends on your recent race results and weekly volume rather than on the number itself — the race-time predictor on this site will convert a recent 5K, 10K or half-marathon result into a marathon estimate using the Riegel power-law model.